Vacancy Is Easing, But Hybrid Work Stays Uneven

Office vacancy is finally trending down, but that does not mean every office feels full. The gap between national averages and local reality is still wide, and hybrid patterns keep demand uneven.

What changed

On January 23, 2026, Yardi Matrix published its January 2026 U.S. Office Market Outlook. It reported a national office vacancy rate of 18.4% as of December 2025, down 140 basis points year over year. It also noted a national full-service equivalent listing rate of $32.86 per square foot and a 30.9 million square foot pipeline under construction. (yardimatrix.com)

On January 26, 2026, CommercialSearch published a 2025 office vacancy update that echoed the Yardi Matrix data. It stated vacancy fell from 19.8% in December 2024 to 18.4% in December 2025, showing steady improvement across the year. (commercialsearch.com)

On January 30, 2026, Axios reported on Austin’s office market, noting vacancy reached 22.3% in Q3 2025. The story framed this as a local stabilization story, not a full rebound, and linked the surplus to shifting workplace models and slower tech expansion. (axios.com)

The takeaway: the national picture is improving, but the local picture can still look soft. For office leaders, that means “back to normal” is not a reliable planning assumption.

Why it matters for office leaders

First, space demand is still uneven across markets and days. National vacancy easing does not fix Tuesday peak demand or Thursday dips. The data says less about daily seat pressure than it does about long-term leasing and supply. That is a hint to focus less on total square footage and more on day-by-day utilization. (yardimatrix.com)

Second, the market is stabilizing slowly, not snapping back. Vacancy improvement has been measured, and listing rates remain sticky. That means landlords will not feel urgent pressure to add flexibility unless tenants ask for it. Office leaders should plan for a longer period where hybrid policies and in-office rhythms do most of the work. (commercialsearch.com)

Third, local conditions can diverge sharply from the national averages. Austin’s 22.3% vacancy in Q3 2025 is a reminder that some markets carry excess supply and may have room to renegotiate. Other markets will be tighter on prime days. Leaders with multi-city footprints should avoid one-size-fits-all space rules. (axios.com)

Finally, the pipeline is smaller but still active. New supply can still arrive in pockets even as older space empties out. That adds operational pressure to make the existing office feel worth the commute, especially on the days you want people in. (yardimatrix.com)

What to do next

• Calibrate desk supply to peak days, not headcount. Use booking data to map your two or three busiest days and size desks, lockers, and support services to that profile.
• Segment demand by location and team. If one market is still soft, test lighter on-site requirements there while keeping higher-usage offices optimized.
• Tighten the feedback loop on utilization. Review desk utilization, no-show rates, and repeat bookings monthly so you can adjust sooner than your next lease review.
• Negotiate for flexibility while vacancy is easing. Local vacancy data can support better terms on expansion options, swing space, and shorter commitments.
• Make in-office days more predictable. Clear team days and simple booking rules reduce the “guessing” overhead that drives no-shows.

A practical hybrid plan is not about predicting the next vacancy print. It is about matching real demand to real space, week after week. Deskify helps teams make that match with simple booking rules and clear utilization insights, so the office works better without a larger footprint.

Sources

• Yardi Matrix: U.S. Office Market Outlook – January 2026 (yardimatrix.com)
• CommercialSearch: 2025 Office Vacancy Update (Jan 26, 2026) (commercialsearch.com)
• Axios Austin: The pandemic’s office market transformation (Jan 30, 2026) (axios.com)